Women’s World Cup: How U.S. Fans Should Root Today

The United States has advanced to the Round of 16 at the Women’s World Cup, but the next opponent remains a mystery. The four matches being played Wednesday will determine which of seven possible teams the United States will play Monday in Edmonton, at 8 p.m. Eastern.

How should American fans root during today’s matches? We’re here to help. The main point: The United States will play a team that finishes third in Group B, E or F. Here are the options:

Pas les Français. The worst possible matchup for the Americans would be France, ranked third in the world. The easiest way to avoid it would be for the French to beat Mexico, in one of the 4 p.m. games. They would then have a higher seed than the Americans’ Round of 16 opponent would have.

And if you want to get greedy? Root for France to beat Mexico by several goals while England ties Colombia (also at 4 p.m.) or wins only narrowly. That combination would let the French win Group F and set up a potential France-Germany matchup in the quarterfinals, meaning that the United States would have to face only one of the two powers during this World Cup. Germany is the world’s top-ranked team, and the Americans are second.

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(For French fans, the best result would be having France finish second in Group F, which could happen with a combination of a win over a Mexico and an English win over Colombia by the same margin. The French would then avoid facing Germany and the U.S. until the tournament finals — an unfair prize, it seems, for failing to win its group.)

An English-speaking derby. The second-worst Round of 16 matchup for the U.S. would probably be England, ranked sixth in the world. So long as England beats Colombia, the Americans and English will avoid each other for now.

The Group E middleweights. South Korea and Spain are each ranked between 14 and 18, in both the official FIFA ranking and FiveThirtyEight’s unofficial (but probably more meaningful) ranking of the 24 World Cup teams. They’re clearly not as strong as the U.S., but they’re not pushovers either and could pull off an upset.

South Korea and Spain play each other Wednesday at 7 p.m. Eastern. There is a plausible scenario in which the U.S. faces one of these two: Brazil, which has nothing to play for, loses to Costa Rica tonight, while Spain and South Korea avoid a draw.

The baseline scenario. If all the favorites win on Wednesday, the United States will end up playing Colombia in the Round of 16. That appears be a nice matchup for the U.S. Although the Colombians upset France last week, they did so while being heavily outshot. Colombia is ranked 28th by FIFA and 20th out of 24 by FiveThirtyEight.

More specifically, the U.S. will face Colombia if Colombia loses to England while France beats Mexico in the afternoon and Brazil beats or ties Costa Rica at night.

The unknown. Costa Rica entered the World Cup, its first, as one of the lowest-ranked teams in the field but has looked good, tying Spain and South Korea. Now the Costa Ricans face Brazil, which has already clinched first place in Group E; the match is meaningless for Brazil.

The U.S. would play Costa Rica next only in an intricate scenario like the following: England or France loses this afternoon while Costa Rica ties Brazil, 2-2 (or more), tonight and Spain and South Korea do not play to a draw.

A bonus of this scenario: England or France would be eliminated entirely. In fact, regardless of what happens elsewhere, either is at risk of elimination with a loss today.

The dream. Thailand was thumped by Germany and Norway and beat only Ivory Coast. But the War Elephants, as the Thai team is known, aren’t dead yet.

They’ll advance — and play the Americans — if Costa Rica loses to Brazil and one of the following also happens: either England loses by at least 7-0 to Colombia or France loses by at least 7-1 to Mexico.

O.K., maybe the War Elephants really are finished.